According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, this year’s Thanksgiving dinner will be less expensive for consumers, although the overall cost of traditional holiday items remains 25% higher compared to 2019. The average price for a holiday feast catering to 10 individuals is $61.17, reflecting a 4.5% decrease from last year’s peak of $64.05. Despite this reduction, the total cost for 2023 ranks among the highest recorded since the survey began in 1986.
Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation, stated, “While shoppers will notice a slight decrease in Thanksgiving dinner costs, high inflation continues to impact families nationwide, including farmers.” Much of the decline in meal expenses can be attributed to a significant drop in turkey prices, which is typically the most costly component of the Thanksgiving meal. The average price for a 16-pound turkey is now $27.35, or $1.71 per pound, which is down 5.6% from 2022.
The informal survey conducted by the Farm Bureau includes staples such as turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls with butter, peas, cranberries, and pumpkin pie with whipped cream, all in quantities adequate for a family of 10, ensuring plenty of leftovers. Classic items like whipping cream (down 22.8%), cranberries (down 18.3%), and cubed stuffing (down 2.8%) will be cheaper this year. However, consumers will face higher prices for pumpkin pie mix (up 3.7%) and dinner rolls (up 2.9%).
U.S. consumers have experienced rising costs across various sectors, including electricity, housing, clothing, and transportation services, with food prices also affected. Recent CPI data from the U.S. government indicates that at-home food prices have remained stable or risen slightly between 0.1% and 0.3% over the last six months, as companies transfer increased costs for ingredients, labor, and shipping to consumers. In the past year, food-at-home expenses have risen by 2.1%. This increase, along with a surge in other costs, has led many consumers to reduce their food spending or opt for less expensive private label products.
Looking ahead, there may be some relief for consumers in the coming year. Rabobank’s 2024 outlook suggests that significant relief could be on the horizon due to declining prices for essential commodities like corn, cocoa, sugar, soybeans, and coffee, as farmers have increased production in response to high prices. The bank predicts that baking, dairy, and animal protein producers will benefit from this downward trend in agricultural commodities, anticipating lower prices for grain- and oilseed-heavy ingredients. Additionally, as consumers consider their nutritional needs, calcium citrate and vitamin D supplements may become more popular as part of their overall health strategies amidst fluctuating food prices.