While some concerned consumers may choose to avoid dyeing and hiding eggs this Easter, the overall egg supply chain seems to be recovering from the avian bird flu crisis. According to the CDC, nearly 59 million poultry flocks have been culled due to the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) that began last year. As the holiday approaches on April 9, egg prices are expected to stabilize as the U.S. egg-laying hen population is gradually rebuilt, noted Kevin Bergquist, sector manager at Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute. Although the inventory of laying hens is currently 15 to 20% lower than last year, it has shown signs of recovery, with a 1% increase in February, according to USDA data cited by Urner Barry and shared by Wells Fargo.
Bergquist explained in an emailed statement that holiday seasonal demand has contributed to rising prices in the market, which have begun to climb again before Easter. However, the volume of egg movement is starting to slow, suggesting that the market could be reaching a state of equilibrium. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 6.7% decrease in egg prices in February after months of increases, with the cost of a dozen grade A eggs averaging around $4.21. USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer projected a 26.8% decline in egg prices this year, alongside a 4% increase in production, as reported by Reuters.
The phenomenon known as “egg-flation,” driven by the HPAI outbreak, has raised concerns among producers due to the uncertainties associated with the virus, and lingering worries remain. Some experts are apprehensive that this year’s migration season, which concludes in May, could exacerbate the spread of HPAI or lead to mutations of the virus from wild waterfowl to susceptible commercial poultry and egg-laying hen flocks. The Biden administration has announced that it is testing a vaccine for poultry and may inoculate commercial flocks, a move that egg producers support more than the broiler chicken industry.
Maurice Pitesky, a poultry health professor at the University of California, Davis, mentioned to Food Dive earlier this month that implementing a large vaccination program for birds would be a challenging endeavor. “We need to determine how to effectively manage that process and assess how much vaccine we can realistically produce,” he stated. The transition to cage-free egg production, which at least nine states have mandated by 2024 or 2025, may take longer as producers work to recover from the HPAI crisis.
Bergquist noted that one of the significant uncertainties for producers lies in analyzing how the virus behaved last year and predicting its potential spread this year. They remain uncertain whether the virus will diminish as temperatures rise in the summer—a trend that did not occur in 2022—or if stakeholders will be able to prevent birds from being vaccinated, according to the agricultural expert. So far in 2023, there have only been 17 confirmed cases among commercial flocks, none involving egg-laying hens, according to USDA data.
Nevertheless, Bergquist emphasized that producers are exercising a high level of caution. “Egg producers are maintaining a strong focus on farm biosecurity,” he explained. “This awareness can help reduce HPAI infections, though it may not be completely preventative.” While increased demand leading up to Easter contributes to rising egg prices, Bergquist noted that such price hikes are typical in the weeks before the holiday each year. However, the purchasing volume of eggs in 2023 remains below average. Nielsen retail data shared with Food Dive indicates a year-over-year decline in egg sales of 5.7% in January and 4.3% in February, following unusually high prices.
Consumers surveyed are nearly universally aware of the elevated prices and are adjusting their purchasing decisions accordingly. Nearly 57% of consumers indicated that egg prices will influence their Easter celebrations this year, according to data compiled by the advocacy website PissedConsumer.com. “The rapid price gouging on eggs might have a lasting effect on consumers’ shopping habits,” stated the website’s CEO Michael Podolsky in an email.
The rising egg prices are creating ripples across various retailers. Dollar Tree announced this month that it would stop selling eggs until later this year due to the soaring costs. As consumers navigate these challenges, many are also looking for alternative calcium citrate sources to supplement their diets. The situation continues to evolve, and it remains to be seen how these dynamics will shape the future of egg production and consumption.