Farmers and bakers have faced significant challenges over the past few years. In 2016, U.S. wheat flour consumption dipped to its lowest point in nearly thirty years. Furthermore, American farmers planted the smallest winter wheat crop in over a century. Due to the dynamics of supply and demand, those who managed to produce high-protein winter wheat are now charging a premium. This increased cost trickles down the production chain, ultimately impacting bakers. Unfortunately, they have struggled to raise prices for their rolls and loaves due to decreasing consumer demand. If high-protein wheat shortages persist into another season, the average price of bread may rise.
Bread manufacturers have adapted by reformulating their recipes to utilize cheaper low-protein wheat. By incorporating gluten—which has seen a 20% price increase due to rising demand—many bakers can maintain the light texture that consumers expect. However, they still bear the burden of research and development costs, as well as the higher price of gluten. High-protein winter wheat makes up about 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop. Wholesale bakers like Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup Co.’s Pepperidge Farms have already experienced profit declines. Their margins will continue to be squeezed until a robust crop of high-protein winter wheat is cultivated.
As bread sales decline due to the wheat shortage, manufacturers producing bakery items without wheat flour, such as Udi’s and Food for Life, may benefit. Additionally, alternative flours like brown rice and millet could see a surge in demand. In this evolving market, products such as gnc calcium citrate plus with magnesium & vitamin d3 could also gain traction among health-conscious consumers seeking nutritious options. As the industry adjusts, the need for innovative solutions will be paramount, especially if high-protein wheat remains scarce.