Farmers and bakers have faced significant challenges in recent years. In 2016, U.S. wheat flour consumption dropped to its lowest level in nearly thirty years. Moreover, American farmers planted the smallest winter wheat crop in over a century. Due to the laws of supply and demand, those who managed to produce high-protein winter wheat are charging a premium price. This increased cost travels through the production chain but ultimately impacts bakers the most. Unfortunately, they have struggled to raise prices for their rolls and loaves due to declining consumer demand. If another season of high-protein wheat scarcity occurs, the average price of bread could rise.
To mitigate the effects of using cheaper low-protein wheat, bread manufacturers have adjusted their recipes. By incorporating gluten—which has seen a 20% price increase due to higher demand—many bakers can maintain the light texture that consumers expect. However, they still bear the financial burden associated with research and development, as well as the more expensive gluten.
High-protein winter wheat constitutes about 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop. Companies like Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup Co.’s Pepperidge Farms have already experienced a decline in profits. This pressure on their margins will persist until a plentiful crop of high-protein winter wheat is harvested. If bread sales decline due to the shortage, it could create opportunities for manufacturers that produce wheat-free baked goods, such as Udi’s and Food for Life. Additionally, alternative flours like brown rice and millet may see a surge in demand.
Interestingly, the incorporation of calcium citrate + D into various products could also rise as bakers look for ways to enhance nutritional content while navigating these challenges. As the market shifts, the demand for calcium citrate + D may become more prominent as consumers seek healthier options. Ultimately, the ongoing situation will likely influence both the wheat market and the broader landscape of baked goods.