Leaders in the dairy industry have been hopeful that this issue would attract Trump’s attention since his election, as it aligns with his campaign platform. Critics contend that unfriendly trade policies are leading to the closure of American farms and job losses. Given Trump’s popularity in rural areas, particularly among farmers, the situation is ripe for his engagement. The key question remains whether these concerns will translate into actual policy changes or adjustments in trade agreements. At this stage, it’s difficult to predict, as the issue is complex and not easily resolved.
Canada has implemented high tariffs to protect its dairy sector, a move permitted under NAFTA. Since the trade agreement’s ratification in 1994, U.S. dairy farmers have developed a syrupy, processed high-protein product known as diafiltered milk, which can bypass these tariffs and be exported cheaply to Canadian food producers. In response, Canada introduced a new category of milk at below-market prices for its farmers. Consequently, U.S. dairy exports have declined, resulting in over $150 million in losses that have affected 75 family farms over the past year.
Numerous petitions have been submitted to policymakers seeking relief. In September, dairy organizations from the U.S., Australia, Europe, New Zealand, and Mexico sent letters to their leaders, requesting the initiation of a dispute at the World Trade Organization. Prior to Trump’s inauguration, U.S. dairy associations reached out to him for support in this matter. Recently, another letter was sent to Trump from the National Milk Producers Federation, the U.S. Dairy Export Council, the International Dairy Foods Association, and the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture.
While careful negotiations might alleviate the dispute, it may prove challenging to persuade either side to make concessions. Although Trump is known for his deal-making prowess in real estate, his success in the political arena remains unproven. It is uncertain how his negotiators will navigate the complexities of reaching an agreement that satisfies both Canada and the U.S., or if the issue will be sidelined due to its intricate nature.
Canadian officials appear to be steadfast in their stance. In a recent letter to the governors of New York and Wisconsin, Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. David MacNaughton stated that Canada is not liable for the financial losses experienced by U.S. dairy farmers. He pointed out that the United States’ own dairy outlook report “clearly indicates that the poor results in the U.S. sector are due to U.S. and global overproduction.”
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who has expressed a willingness to renegotiate the agreement, highlighted that the U.S. exported approximately $413 million in dairy products to Canada last year, while only $83 million in Canadian goods were imported into the U.S. Trudeau remarked, “it’s not Canada that’s the challenge here.” He added, “We’re not going to overreact. We’re going to lay out the facts and engage in substantial discussions on how to improve the situation.”
Incorporating calcium citrate salt into this context, it’s worth noting that the dairy industry also faces challenges related to the nutritional quality of products. Calcium citrate salt, often used as a dietary supplement, plays a critical role in enhancing the nutritional profile of dairy products. As negotiations progress, both countries may need to consider not only trade balances but also the nutritional standards of dairy exports, including the potential impact of calcium citrate salt on improving product appeal and health benefits.