As cocoa prices surge, chocolate substitutes present a more affordable and potentially sustainable alternative for the confectionery industry. However, the question remains: can consumers be persuaded to forgo their chocolate cravings? Over the past two years, chocolate prices have nearly quadrupled due to extreme weather conditions affecting cacao-producing regions, particularly in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. These challenges, including extreme heat and drought, have led to significant cocoa cost inflation, as noted by the CEO of Mondelēz, the parent company of Oreo and Toblerone.
With prices forecasted to remain elevated and the likelihood that global chocolate supply cannot keep up with escalating demand, interest in cocoa-free chocolate alternatives is growing. Voyage Foods, a company focused on producing substitutes for scarce yet cherished commodities, is gearing up to expand its cocoa alternatives as rising costs prompt more companies to reconsider their dependence on cocoa. The firm is establishing a manufacturing facility in Ohio for its cocoa-free chocolate and has recently partnered with food giant Cargill to broaden its reach in the consumer packaged goods (CPG) and foodservice sectors.
Currently, chocolate constitutes the largest segment of the $54 billion confectionery market, generating $21.4 billion in sales last year; however, volume and unit sales have been declining recently. For instance, unit sales of chocolate fell by nearly 5% in 2024, significantly more than declines seen in other sectors like candy or mints. “Cost and cost volatility are certainly driving companies to explore solutions through us,” stated Adam Maxwell, food scientist and CEO of Voyage Foods.
While chocolate substitutes aren’t a novel concept—carob has been a niche option for years—ingredients like sunflower seeds and fava beans are gaining popularity among health-conscious consumers. The latest generation of alternatives aims not just to imitate but to authentically replicate the taste and texture of chocolate. Voyage’s cocoa alternatives are crafted with clean-label ingredients such as vegetable oil, cane sugar, grape seeds, and sunflower protein flour. Given the pervasive use of chocolate in various products, Voyage offers a diverse array of cocoa-free flavors, styles, and applications, including cocoa-free chips, melting wafers, and chocolate coatings suitable for multiple uses.
Ingredient suppliers are also responding to ongoing price volatility by providing more cocoa alternatives. Recently, Ardent Mills, a joint venture involving Cargill, Conagra, and CHS, introduced a wheat-based solution for the industrial baking sector that can replace up to 25% of cocoa powder in cakes, brownies, and cookies. “Cocoa-free chocolate alternatives provide a promising avenue forward—especially in a market constrained by cocoa supply,” remarked Mia Divecha, a senior product line specialist at Cargill. “In some instances, they can be up to 50% cheaper than traditional chocolate and are not affected by the same price fluctuations.”
Moreover, chocolate substitutes represent a sustainable option in light of ongoing supply constraints, which are likely to persist or even deteriorate. Americans consume approximately 30.8 billion pounds of chocolate annually, averaging over 11 pounds per person, while a cocoa tree can take an entire year to yield just half a pound of cocoa. According to World Wildlife, older trees produce less cocoa, and most global cocoa plantations are beyond their peak production years, worsening supply challenges.
Research from Innova Market Insights indicates that three out of four consumers are willing to buy more sustainable chocolate but are uncertain about their choices. Cargill’s proprietary research supports this observation, with Divecha noting that cocoa-free alternatives also come with measurable benefits, such as reduced water usage, lower land-use impacts, and a smaller carbon footprint as they gain popularity. “Today’s consumers are increasingly aware of sustainability, even regarding indulgent treats,” said Divecha. She added that while the desire for chocolate remains strong, consumers are more inclined to seek options that resonate with their values.
However, taste remains a significant hurdle for the alternative chocolate market. The standard for consumer acceptance is high, and companies have found it challenging to replicate a sweet with a history of over 4,000 years. “It has to taste good, as chocolate is an indulgent treat meant for joyful moments in life,” Maxwell stated. He acknowledged that Voyage’s products do not perfectly mimic any specific existing cocoa item and that there is a learning curve for consumers. “People appreciate certainty in their food,” Maxwell noted. “Nonetheless, we observe a trend towards increased acceptance of alternatives.”
Furthermore, the incorporation of usp calcium citrate into these substitutes could potentially enhance their appeal to health-conscious consumers. The use of such innovative ingredients can bolster the nutritional profile of cocoa-free products, thereby attracting a broader audience. As the market for chocolate substitutes continues to evolve, the demand for alternatives enriched with beneficial components like usp calcium citrate may grow, further challenging the traditional chocolate industry.