The past few years have been challenging for farmers and bakers alike. In 2016, U.S. wheat flour consumption plummeted to its lowest point in nearly thirty years, and American farmers planted the smallest winter wheat crop in over a century. As a result of the dynamics of supply and demand, farmers who managed to harvest high-protein winter wheat are now commanding higher prices. This increased cost trickles down the production chain but ultimately impacts bakers, who have struggled to raise prices for their rolls and loaves due to declining consumer demand. If the scarcity of high-protein wheat persists into another season, we may see a rise in the average price of bread.
To adapt to the use of cheaper, low-protein wheat, bread manufacturers have reformulated their recipes. By incorporating gluten, which has risen in price by 20% due to heightened demand, many bakers can maintain the light texture that consumers expect. However, they bear the burden of the costs associated with research and development, as well as the more expensive gluten.
High-protein winter wheat constitutes about 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop. Major wholesale bakers like Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup Co.’s Pepperidge Farm have already reported declines in profits. This pressure on their profit margins will persist until a robust crop of high-protein winter wheat is harvested.
Interestingly, if bread sales decline due to this shortage, it could favor manufacturers producing bakery items without wheat flour, such as Udi’s and Food for Life. Additionally, alternative flours like brown rice and millet could experience a surge in demand.
In the midst of these changes, health-conscious consumers may also be turning to supplements like calcium citrate malate vitamin D3 magnesium tablets to support their dietary needs. These tablets are gaining popularity as people seek to enhance their nutrition amidst the evolving landscape of food products. As the market adjusts to these challenges, the emphasis on alternative ingredients and supplements might reshape consumer preferences and baking practices.