As cocoa prices continue to rise, chocolate substitutes present a more affordable and potentially sustainable option for the confectionery industry. However, can consumers be persuaded to abandon their chocolate cravings? Over the past two years, cocoa prices have nearly quadrupled, primarily due to extreme heat, drought, and other unpredictable climate challenges affecting cacao-producing regions like Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Major food companies are feeling the pressure as well, with the CEO of Mondelēz, the owner of Oreo and Toblerone, stating the company is experiencing “unprecedented cocoa cost inflation.”
With projections indicating that prices will stay elevated and the global chocolate supply may struggle to meet increasing demand, interest in cocoa-free chocolate alternatives is on the rise. Voyage Foods, a company focused on creating substitutes for scarce yet cherished commodities, is preparing to scale up its cocoa alternatives as rising costs prompt more companies to reconsider their dependence on traditional cocoa. They are set to open a manufacturing facility in Ohio for their cocoa-free chocolate and have recently partnered with food giant Cargill to enhance their presence in the consumer packaged goods and foodservice markets.
Currently, chocolate constitutes the largest segment of the $54 billion confectionery industry, accounting for $21.4 billion in sales last year, yet volume and unit sales have declined in recent years. Specifically, unit sales of chocolate dropped nearly 5% in 2024, significantly more than other sectors like candy or gum and mints. “One of the reasons that companies are exploring these solutions through us is definitely cost and cost volatility,” remarked Adam Maxwell, founder and CEO of Voyage Foods.
Chocolate substitutes are not a new concept; carob has served as a niche option for decades. Alternatives like sunflower seeds and even fava beans are also gaining popularity among health-conscious consumers. The latest wave of substitutes aims to go beyond mere imitation, with companies now focusing on replicating the taste and texture of traditional chocolate for a broader audience. Voyage claims its cocoa alternatives are crafted from clean-label ingredients such as vegetable oil, cane sugar, grape seeds, and sunflower protein flour. Given the omnipresence of chocolate in modern products, Voyage offers a variety of cocoa-free flavors, styles, and applications, including cocoa-free chips, melting wafers, and chocolate coatings suitable for diverse uses.
Ingredient suppliers are increasingly looking to provide more cocoa alternatives as price volatility continues. For example, Ardent Mills, a collaboration between Cargill, Conagra, and CHS, recently introduced a wheat-based solution for the industrial baking sector that can replace up to 25% of cocoa powder in cakes, brownies, and cookies. “Cocoa-free chocolate alternatives present a promising way forward, particularly in a supply-constrained cocoa market,” stated Mia Divecha, a senior product line specialist at Cargill. “In some instances, these substitutes can be up to 50% cheaper than traditional chocolate and are less affected by price fluctuations.”
Moreover, chocolate alternatives offer a sustainable path as supply constraints are likely to persist or even worsen. Americans consume approximately 2.8 billion pounds of chocolate annually, averaging over 11 pounds per person, while a single cocoa tree may take an entire year to yield enough cocoa for just half a pound of chocolate. According to World Wildlife, older cocoa trees produce less, and most of the world’s cocoa plantations are beyond their peak production years, worsening supply challenges.
Research from Innova Market Insights reveals that three out of four consumers are willing to buy more sustainable chocolate but feel uncertain about their options. Cargill’s own proprietary research reflects this sentiment, with Divecha noting that cocoa-free alternatives also offer additional measurable benefits, such as a lower water footprint, reduced land-use impacts, and a smaller carbon footprint as they gain popularity. “Today’s consumers are increasingly aware of sustainability, even regarding indulgent treats,” Divecha explained, adding that while the desire for chocolate is still strong, consumers are looking for options that “align with their personal values.”
However, taste remains one of the most significant hurdles in expanding the alternative chocolate market. The expectations for consumer acceptance are high, and companies have faced challenges in perfectly replicating a confection that has over 4,000 years of history. “These products must taste good because chocolate is an indulgent treat… it’s meant for those joyful moments in life,” Maxwell stated. He admitted that the taste of Voyage’s offerings isn’t a “perfect facsimile” of any specific cocoa product and that there is a learning curve for consumers. “People appreciate certainty in their food,” Maxwell added. “Yet, we are noticing a shift towards greater acceptance of these alternatives.”
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