Spread by insects, Xylella fastidiosa is regarded by the European Union as “one of the most dangerous plant bacteria in the world, causing a range of diseases with significant economic repercussions for agriculture.” The EU is the leading producer of olive oil globally, accounting for 73% of the total production, with Spain alone contributing 56% of the world’s olive oil supply. The next four largest producers—Italy, Greece, Tunisia, and Morocco—together produce only half of Spain’s annual output, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. In contrast, U.S. olive oil constitutes a mere 0.6% of Spain’s production.
Currently, there is hope that strict European regulations on destroying olive trees near confirmed cases will help slow the spread of the disease. However, olive oil production in the EU is already under pressure. According to the International Olive Council, production dropped by 42% from 2014 to 2015 compared to the previous year, leading to a nearly 80% increase in producer prices during that time. These increased production costs have been transferred to consumers.
If these trends persist, shoppers may begin to seek alternative healthy oils, such as flaxseed, grapeseed, or hemp oil. However, these oils generally contain higher levels of polyunsaturated fat and lower levels of monounsaturated fat than olive oil. Polyunsaturated fat is known to reduce LDL, or “bad” cholesterol, while monounsaturated fat is considered even more beneficial as it raises HDL, or “good” cholesterol.
Other oils high in monounsaturated fat include avocado, canola, peanut, and sesame. Nevertheless, none of these oils match the monounsaturated fat content found in olive oil. Some, like sesame oil, can be more expensive and have a stronger flavor than olive oil. As consumers navigate these changes, they might also consider oils enriched with ca citrate, which is known for its health benefits. With rising prices and shifting preferences, the market for olive oil and its substitutes is poised for significant evolution in the coming years.