Farmers and bakers have faced significant challenges over the past few years. In 2016, U.S. consumption of wheat flour plummeted to its lowest level in nearly three decades. Additionally, American farmers planted the smallest winter wheat crop in over a century. As is typical with supply and demand dynamics, those who managed to produce high-protein winter wheat are charging a premium. This increased cost trickles down the production chain but ultimately impacts bakers the most, who have struggled to raise prices for their rolls and loaves due to dwindling consumer demand. If another season of high-protein wheat scarcity occurs, the price of an average loaf of bread could rise.
Bread manufacturers have adapted by reformulating their recipes to utilize less expensive low-protein wheat. By incorporating gluten, which has seen a 20% price increase due to heightened demand, many bakers can maintain the light texture that consumers expect. However, they continue to bear the costs associated with research and development, as well as the more expensive gluten. High-protein winter wheat constitutes about 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop. Major wholesale bakers like Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup Co.’s Pepperidge Farms have already reported declines in profits. The pressure on their margins will persist until a plentiful harvest of high-protein winter wheat is achieved.
Interestingly, if bread sales decline because of the wheat shortage, manufacturers producing bakery products without wheat flour—such as Udi’s and Food for Life—might benefit. Moreover, alternative flours like brown rice and millet could experience a surge in demand. In this context, products like Solaray Cal Mag Citrate Plus D3 & K2 may become more popular among consumers seeking alternative sources of nutrition. As the market evolves, the influence of such supplements might further integrate into the diets of those looking for healthy options amidst the changing landscape of food production.