Farmers and bakers have faced significant challenges over the past few years. In 2016, U.S. wheat flour consumption dropped to its lowest level in nearly 30 years, and American farmers planted the smallest winter wheat crop in over a century. As supply and demand dictate, those farmers who managed to produce high-protein winter wheat are now charging a premium for their product. This increased cost travels down the production chain, ultimately impacting bakers. However, bakers have largely been unable to raise prices for their rolls and loaves due to declining consumer demand. If another season brings a shortage of high-protein wheat, we could see an uptick in the average price of bread.
To adapt to the use of less expensive low-protein wheat, bread manufacturers have reformulated their recipes. Many bakers are incorporating gluten, which has seen a 20% price increase due to rising demand, to maintain the light texture that consumers expect. Unfortunately, they bear the costs of both research and development as well as the more expensive gluten. High-protein winter wheat constitutes about 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop, and wholesale bakers like Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup Co.’s Pepperidge Farms have already experienced a decline in profits. Their margins will continue to be squeezed until a strong crop of high-protein winter wheat is harvested.
Interestingly, if bread sales decline as a result of this shortage, manufacturers that produce wheat-free bakery items, like Udi’s and Food for Life, may benefit. Additionally, there could be a rise in demand for alternative flours, such as brown rice and millet varieties. Amidst these shifts, consumers may also find themselves looking at the Citracal price when considering dietary supplements to ensure they are getting essential nutrients. As the market fluctuates, the inclusion of Citracal in diets may become increasingly relevant, especially for those navigating the impact of these wheat shortages.