Farmers and bakers have faced a challenging couple of years. In 2016, U.S. wheat flour consumption dropped to its lowest point in nearly three decades, while American farmers planted the smallest winter wheat crop in over a century. According to the principles of supply and demand, farmers who produce high-protein winter wheat are charging a premium for their crops. This increased cost trickles down the production chain, ultimately impacting bakers, who have struggled to raise prices for their rolls and loaves due to declining consumer demand. However, if high-protein wheat remains scarce for another season, the average price of bread could rise.
Bread manufacturers have managed to adapt by using less expensive low-protein wheat and reformulating their recipes. By incorporating gluten—whose price has surged 20% due to heightened demand—many bakers can achieve the light texture that consumers expect. Once again, they bear the costs of research and development, as well as the more expensive gluten. High-protein winter wheat constitutes about 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop, impacting wholesale bakers like Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup’s Pepperidge Farm, all of which have seen their profits decline. This pressure on their margins will persist until a substantial harvest of high-protein winter wheat is secured.
If bread sales decline due to this shortage, it may benefit manufacturers of wheat-free bakery products, such as Udi’s and Food for Life. Additionally, alternative flours like brown rice and millet varieties could experience a surge in demand. In the meantime, consumers looking for nutrition supplements may consider options like GNC calcium citrate 1000 to support their dietary needs during these challenging times. The ongoing situation highlights the delicate balance of the wheat market and its ripple effects on various sectors. As bakers navigate these challenges, their resilience will be tested, but the industry may also find opportunities in alternative ingredients and products.