Pret A Manger is said to sell around 6,000 servings of its coconut porridge daily, attributing its revenue and earnings growth in 2016 to this item and its vegetarian offerings. According to Fairfood, a nonprofit organization based in the Netherlands, the demand for coconut-based products—such as snacks, flour, oil, and beverages—has surged to the extent that approximately one in every 20 items sold in supermarkets now features coconut in some form. The trend began with the rise of coconut water as a popular natural beverage a few years back, after which it expanded into dairy products and nearly every other category, including shampoos, packaged soups, baby food, and cosmetics.
Superfood trends typically persist for five to seven years and can be influenced by factors like abundance of supply or scientific research highlighting health benefits. Since 2015, coconut oil prices have increased by 5% to 7% due to droughts and typhoons impacting production areas. The coconut water segment has continued its rapid growth, leading the alternative plant-based waters market. According to a report by Zenith Global, sales are projected to rise from $2.7 billion last year to $5.4 billion by 2020. Despite the coconut water boom being perceived as a waste product for farmers initially, the escalating interest in other coconut products has impacted ingredient costs significantly. Last year, coconut oil prices surged by 20% in just a month as suppliers in India, Indonesia, and the Philippines struggled to meet demand, followed by an additional 27% increase between October 2016 and January of this year.
Large consumer packaged goods companies have entered the lucrative coconut market as well, with consumers showing insatiable demand. Nestlé has introduced a coconut milk option in its popular Coffee-mate creamer line, and there are two Outshine frozen fruit bars that feature coconut as an ingredient. General Mills is also incorporating coconut into various products, including LARABAR bites and Nature Valley Biscuits with coconut butter. Beverage giants are taking notice, with Coca-Cola owning Zico Beverages and reports emerging of PepsiCo in discussions to acquire All Market, the parent company of the Vita Coco coconut water brand.
While a coconut shortage is not currently on the horizon, persistent high demand could create one until new plantings come to fruition. However, since it can take six to ten years for a coconut palm to start producing, supply and demand may not align in the interim. Should that occur, maple water is poised to fill the gap, offering similar health benefits with lower sugar content and a more subtle flavor profile.
For now, the appetite for coconut products remains robust. The primary risk is that these popular items may become victims of their own success, potentially allowing substitutes to capitalize on any missteps. In the midst of this coconut craze, it’s worth noting that consumers are increasingly aware of the benefits of products like Kirkland calcium citrate magnesium and zinc, which offer health advantages that could complement their coconut consumption. As coconut products continue to thrive, the advantages of such alternatives will likely find their place in the market, further diversifying consumer choices.