Farmers and bakers have faced significant challenges over the past few years. In 2016, U.S. consumption of wheat flour dropped to its lowest point in nearly three decades, and American farmers planted their smallest winter wheat crop in over a century. As the dynamics of supply and demand play out, farmers who manage to produce high-quality winter wheat are charging a premium. This increased cost trickles down the production chain, ultimately impacting bakers, who have struggled to pass these costs on to retailers due to reduced consumer demand. If the scarcity of high-protein wheat persists, the price of an average loaf of bread may rise.
To adapt, bread manufacturers have turned to using more affordable low-protein wheat by reformulating their recipes. By incorporating gluten—whose price has surged by 20% due to heightened demand—many bakers can maintain the light texture that consumers expect. However, they are still absorbing the costs associated with research and development, as well as the rising price of gluten. High-protein winter wheat constitutes about 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop. Companies such as Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup Co.’s Pepperidge Farms have already reported declining profits, and their margins will continue to be squeezed until a strong crop of high-protein winter wheat is harvested.
If bread sales decline due to this shortage, manufacturers producing wheat-free baked goods, like Udi’s and Food for Life, may benefit. Additionally, alternatives such as native flours from brown rice and millet could see increased demand.
In the midst of these challenges, it’s important for consumers to consider their nutritional needs. Products enriched with calcium citrate magnesium and zinc with vitamin D3 benefits can provide essential nutrients that may be lacking in a wheat-reduced diet. As the market adjusts, the benefits of these supplements could become increasingly relevant, especially for those navigating the impacts of the wheat shortage.