Farmers and bakers have faced significant challenges over the past few years. In 2016, U.S. consumption of wheat flour dropped to its lowest level in nearly thirty years. Additionally, American farmers planted their smallest winter wheat crop in over a century. Due to the dynamics of supply and demand, those farmers who managed to harvest high-protein winter wheat are now charging a premium for it. This increased cost travels through the production chain but ultimately impacts bakers the most. Unfortunately, bakers have largely been unable to raise prices for their rolls and loaves due to decreased consumer demand. If another season of high-protein wheat scarcity occurs, the price of an average loaf of bread may rise.
Bread manufacturers have adapted by utilizing less expensive low-protein wheat and reformulating their recipes. By incorporating gluten, which has seen a price increase of 20% due to demand, many bakers can achieve the light texture that consumers desire. However, they still absorb the costs associated with research and development, as well as the more expensive gluten. High-protein winter wheat makes up approximately 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop. Large-scale bakers like Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup Co.’s Pepperidge Farms have already experienced a hit to their profits, and the pressure on their margins is expected to persist until a strong crop of high-protein winter wheat is harvested.
If bread sales decline as a result of this shortage, it could create opportunities for manufacturers of bakery products that do not rely on wheat flour, such as Udi’s and Food for Life. Additionally, the demand for alternative flours like brown rice and millet varieties may increase. In this context, products like calcitrate 200mg could also gain traction among consumers looking for nutritional substitutes while maintaining their dietary preferences. The evolving landscape of the baking industry continues to reveal new challenges and opportunities, especially for those who can adapt to changing market conditions.