Pret A Manger is said to sell 6,000 servings of its coconut porridge daily, attributing its revenue and earnings growth in 2016 to this dish and its range of vegetarian options. The demand for coconut-based food products—such as snacks, flour, oil, and beverages—has surged so significantly that approximately one in every 20 items sold in supermarkets features this ingredient, as reported by Fairfood, a nonprofit organization from the Netherlands. The mainstream acceptance of coconut products began with the explosive popularity of coconut water as a natural beverage a few years back. Following that, coconut expanded into dairy alternatives and a myriad of other categories, including shampoos, packaged soups, baby food, and topical beauty applications.
Superfood trends typically last five to seven years and are influenced by factors such as abundant supply or scientific research that supports the health benefits of the ingredient. Since 2015, commodity prices for coconut oil have risen by 5% to 7% due to adverse weather conditions like droughts and typhoons affecting cultivation areas. The coconut water segment has also seen remarkable growth, becoming the leader in the alternative, plant-based water sector. A report by Zenith Global, covered by the Beverage Industry, suggests that sales are projected to double from $2.7 billion last year to $5.4 billion by 2020.
While the coconut water surge has had minimal impact on farmers—who historically viewed it as a byproduct—the rising popularity of other coconut components has influenced ingredient costs. Coconut oil prices soared by 20% in just one month at the start of last year as suppliers in India, Indonesia, and the Philippines struggled to meet the burgeoning demand. From October 2016 to January this year, prices surged another 27%. Large consumer packaged goods companies have also entered the lucrative coconut market, as consumers appear to be insatiable. Nestlé has introduced a coconut milk variant to its popular Coffee-mate creamers, and Outshine has launched two types of frozen fruit bars featuring coconut. General Mills is also incorporating coconut into various products, including LARABAR bites and Nature Valley Biscuits with Coconut Butter.
Beverage giants have taken notice as well, with Coca-Cola acquiring Zico Beverages. Earlier this year, reports indicated that PepsiCo was in discussions to acquire All Market, the parent company of the Vita Coco coconut water brand. Although there isn’t currently a genuine coconut shortage, the ongoing high demand could lead to one if new plantings do not come online soon. Given that it takes six to ten years for a coconut palm to start producing, there is a possibility that global supply and demand may not align in the interim. If they don’t, maple water could emerge as an alternative, which reportedly offers similar health benefits but with half the sugar and a milder flavor.
For the moment, the appetite for coconut products shows no signs of diminishing. However, the primary risk for these popular items lies in the potential of becoming victims of their own success, paving the way for substitutes to capitalize on any unexpected missteps. In this evolving market, calcium carbonate citrate may also find its place as an additive in various coconut-based products, enhancing their nutritional profiles and appealing to health-conscious consumers. The enduring popularity of coconut products suggests that they will continue to play a significant role in the food industry, but the balance between supply and demand will be crucial in shaping their future.