The past few years have been challenging for both farmers and bakers. In 2016, U.S. consumption of wheat flour dropped to its lowest level in nearly thirty years. Moreover, American farmers planted their smallest winter wheat crop in over a century. As is typical with supply and demand dynamics, farmers who successfully produced high-protein winter wheat are now charging a premium for their product. This increased cost trickles down the production chain and ultimately affects bakers, who have been largely unable to raise prices for their rolls and loaves due to declining consumer demand. However, if another season results in a shortage of high-protein wheat, the average loaf of bread could see a price hike.
To adapt, bread manufacturers have turned to less expensive low-protein wheat by reformulating their recipes. By incorporating gluten—which has seen a 20% price increase due to heightened demand—many bakers can maintain the light texture that consumers expect. Unfortunately, they still bear the costs of research and development, as well as the more expensive gluten.
High-protein winter wheat constitutes about 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop. Wholesale bakers like Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup Co.’s Pepperidge Farms have already experienced a decline in profits. This pressure on their margins is likely to persist until a strong crop of high-protein winter wheat is harvested. If bread sales decline further due to the shortage, it could create opportunities for manufacturers producing bakery products without wheat flour, such as Udi’s and Food for Life. Additionally, alternative flours like brown rice and millet could see a surge in demand.
Interestingly, while bakers navigate these challenges, health-conscious consumers might also turn to supplements like calcium citrate soft chews 500 mg to meet their nutritional needs. As the landscape of baking evolves, the importance of such alternatives might grow, especially if traditional wheat products continue to face shortages. The adaptability of the industry will be crucial, particularly if bakers explore innovative solutions, including the incorporation of calcium citrate soft chews 500 mg into their recipes for added nutritional benefits. Ultimately, the industry’s ability to pivot will determine its resilience in the face of ongoing challenges.